The German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies (DZHW GmbH; formerly HIS GmbH) has decades of expertise regarding the causes and motives of student drop-out as well as the calculation of attrition and drop-out rates. Between the 1970s and the 1990s, the DZHW (HIS) established several series of studies that examine the causes of student drop-out, further career developments of drop-outs and suitable measures to reduce student drop-out. These series of studies were picked up again in the early 2000s.
In the 1990s the DZHW developed a computing method that for the first time enabled the presentation of detailed drop-out rates for subject groups and selected fields of study at universities and universities of applied sciences, based on the 1999 graduate cohort. These quotas are continually updated with the data of subsequent graduate's cohorts.
The current project "Student Drop-out - Extent and Motives" funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and Stiftung Mercator applies an extensive and unitised approach. Within five modules, the topic of student drop-out is explored from various perspectives. At some points the study modules run simultaneously, so that new findings can be continually correlated. Synergy effects between the modules are explicitly a part of the project structure.
Module: Development of a theoretical model of student drop-out
To date, there is still no general theoretical model of student drop-out. While in most cases relevant publications address the theme of student drop-out empirically, they frequently do not offer more than a description of the phenomenon. Existing theoretical approaches tend to not define student drop-out in its entirety, so essential or new empirically evident factors are not taken into account.
The current project therefore aims to include the relevant scholarly literature and expertise from prior student drop-out studies in its work to develop a theoretical model of student drop-out that fulfils the demand for universal validity. A broad comprehension of drop-out occurrence from higher education institutions as a long-term process can only be gained through theoretical abstraction. Within this module, problem-focussed guided interviews with drop-outs are conducted. New findings from interviews as well as insights from the current state of research make up the main focus of the graduate surveys.
Module: Graduate survey
The nationwide representative survey of graduates of the 2014 summer semester makes up the core of the project and gives information about the complex process of student drop-out. In a quantitative study, extensive information on the educational stages prior to higher academic studies, activities and study conditions in higher education institutions, and the development of vocational prospects after the abandonment of higher academic studies is gathered. This module is a further development of the Graduate Survey of the 2007/2008 academic year (Heublein et al. 2010). Central research questions are:
- From the students' perspective, what are the current reasons for their decision to drop-out of a study programme?
- What impact do social origin and migration background have on student drop-out?
- What impact does the student’s educational pathway have on their academic success?
- What links between certain study conditions and study behaviours influence academic success?
- What differences in the interaction between study conditions and study behaviours exist between the varying faculty cultures?
- How did the drop-outs organise their transition to new qualifications and career prospects?
- Which career paths do the drop-outs pursue six months after their deregistration and what are the crucial factors for this development?
Module: Survey of faculties
The nationwide representative survey of faculties and selected fields of study (business studies, German studies and physics at universities, and business studies and informatics at universities of applied sciences) focusses on the measures necessary to promote academic success, quality management issues, and notions of ‘best practices’ in student supervision. A survey of faculty heads from two selected fields of study, conducted on behalf of the VDMA (Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau e.V.) in 2012, served as a pilot study. The module examines the following research questions:
- Which quality assurance measures have been introduced by the faculties within the different study phases?
- Which indicators monitor the course of studies and the development of academic success?
- Which of these activities proved to be of value?
- From the faculties' perspective, what can be classified as 'best practice'’?
- To what extent do the university administration and the faculties coordinate their strategies, guidelines and activities?
- What requirements does the quality management depend on?
- What are the obstacles and problems in the development of quality assurance measures?
- To what extent do teachers get involved?
- What measures are considered to be essential in supporting academic success?
Module: Survey of student counselling and career centres
The survey of the student counselling and career centres addresses the provision of and issues in the counselling of students who are considering dropping out of higher education or who that have already done so. The survey also focuses on the question of how far a reorientation of academic studies or a vocation can be supported, and which obstacles exist especially during the transition into vocational training or an occupation. The analysis focuses particularly on the following questions:
- What is offered in the way of counselling of potential drop-outs?
- How is it used by the students in question?
- What are the problems the students at risk express during the counselling?
- What kind of guidance is given - also with respect to vocational orientation?
- What is offered in terms of vocational reorientation?
- Which of these offers do drop-outs use the most?
- What connections can be identified between the faculty cultures and vocational reorientation?
- What are the requirements for professional counselling activity?
Module: Attrition and drop-out rate
The calculation of attrition and drop-out rates based on the group of graduates of 2014 rests upon a calculation method developed by the DZHW, which correlates selected groups of first-year students with groups of graduates. The last report was released in 2014 and rests upon calculations regarding the 2012 graduates cohort (Heublein et al. 2014).